The 2010 GOP Horse Race: Who Will Emerge?
In South Carolina’s 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary, three is truly the magic number.
We have three big names that decided not to run, three all but announced “front-runners,” three long shots and three conservative reformers whose entrance could shake things up in a big way.
And then there’s the big wild card, the mercurial Mark Sanford – who is currently sitting in the Mansion all of them want to occupy.
Where Sanford ends up putting his money (i.e. his prodigious list of big dollar donors) and his mouth (i.e. his endorsement) could turn any campaign into an instant front-runner. More on that in a forthcoming story, though …
For now, let’s start by looking at the three big names that aren’t in the race – S.C. House Speaker Bobby Harrell, former Speaker David Wilkins and former majority leader Jimmy Merrill. Of those, Harrell and Wilkins would have mounted incredibly strong, well-funded campaigns (particularly Wilkins), which is why we’ll be keeping a close eye on where they throw their support.
Merrill? It didn’t take him long to realize that the opening in the race for a Lowcountry candidate wasn’t meant for him.
The three all-but-announced candidates are all familiar names – S.C. Attorney General Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and U.S. Congressman Gresham Barrett. We addressed their candidacies in our initial installment on the 2010 GOP primary earlier this week, but each is backed by one of the state’s three political machines, each will have plenty of money to burn and each has been busy de facto campaigning and assembling their teams for months now.
A clear front-runner from that pack of three has yet to emerge, in large part due to the lack of energy their respective non-campaigns have mustered up to this point in the race.
The three long-shots are Carroll A. “Tumpy” Campbell III, Furman Political Science Professor Brent Nelsen and Charleston Sen. Chip Campsen. Campbell is far too scandal-plagued (and too dumb, for that matter) to be taken seriously, while Nelson is intriguing but unknown.
Campsen? Like Merrill he sees the opening for a Lowcountry candidate – he just hasn’t realized that it’s not for him, either.
Now for the most important “trifecta,” the three conservative reformers whose names are being bandied about extensively in Palmetto political circles – Beaufort Sen. Tom Davis, Lexington Rep. Nikki Haley and Lowcountry businessman Chad Walldorf, a former Sanford Deputy.
Other potential reform-minded candidates whose names are tossed out include Rep. Nathan Ballentine, newly-elected Sen. Mick Mulvaney and even First Lady Jenny Sanford … but thus far Davis, Haley and Walldorf are the three names we hear mentioned most frequently.
Of those, the candidate many feel is the most attractive option, Rep. Haley, is probably the least likely to run – as several of her colleagues in the House tell FITS she has told them that option isn’t in her immediate future.
Walldorf is a brilliant policy mind and budget cruncher extraordinaire (useful skills in the current revenue disaster) – but he’s never held elected office and has shown no interest whatsoever at this point in taking that leap.
Which is unfortunate, because he’d bring a sorely-needed skill set to the table.
That leaves us with Davis, Sanford’s former Chief of Staff and two-time co-campaign manager.
As the primary architect of the deal to bring a port to Jasper County, Tom would enter the race with instant economic development credibility. He also shepherded Sanford’s charter school reform bill through the legislature while serving as Chief of Staff, and has been among the most high-profile advocates of Sanford’s tax and restructuring proposals.
Plus, for a guy joined at the hip with the governor – who lawmakers obviously hate – Davis has surprisingly strong relations with his new colleagues in the General Assembly.
Will he run? We’ll see … momentum among conservatives would certainly appear to be coalescing around him at the moment, though.
Whoever ends up getting in will have to make a decision fairly quickly, though.
McMaster, Bauer and Barrett’s announcements are imminent, and the primary is now less than a year-and-a-half away – meaning anybody serious about running had better be putting the gears in place.
Editor’s Note: This is the second installment in an “early look” series we’re doing on the 2010 S.C. gubernatorial race – stay tuned for a final feature on the GOP race, “The Sanford Factor,” as well as coverage of the Democratic prospects.
Comments
By lou on January 23rd, 2009 at 8:06 am
McMaster, Barrett and Bauer- NO NO and NO>
By Silence the Noise on January 23rd, 2009 at 9:35 am
Chad Waldorf should be the first “Dept. of Administration” cabinet head.
Davis should run for Gov.
“Bailout” Barrett, “Incapable” McMaster, “Kindergarten” Bauer….no chance
By Crush on January 23rd, 2009 at 9:44 am
I heart Nikki. She’s hot.
By Gen. Longstreet on January 23rd, 2009 at 11:11 am
In addition to being willing to serve as RNC chairman, I’d be honored to be the GOP’s nominee in the 2010 gubernatorial race. I outlined my credential in the most-recent Katon Dawson post, but would add this: if one is defined, at least in part, by his enemies, than I am proud to count Nathan Bedford Forrest as one such. In a recent post (in which the dumbass mispelled his name “Forest”), the founder of the Ku Klux Klan lambasted me as a Republican scalawag. Please, Forrest, keep those condemnations coming. Query, though: does the racist 1895 constitution allow Poltergeists to serve as governor?
By Upstate_GOP on January 23rd, 2009 at 11:25 am
How real is this rumor that Furman poli-sci professor Brent Nelsen is thinking about running for governor? As far as I can tell he is a poli-sci dept. chair, a Republican, and a political analyst on the Greenville NBC affiliate who wrote an op-ed analyzing the current state of the Republican Party. Seems like something he would do anyway. Then some anonymous blog run by a Furman student covering stuff that are only really of interest to Furman students claims that sources around campus say Nelsen is thinking about running for gov? If this rumor appears on FITS News in an article about the 2010 GOP horse race, I would assume that Sic has at least some good sources other than some anonymous Furman student blog and the Palmetto Scoop…
By Hell Yeah on January 23rd, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Will… You’re telling me Howie Rich hasn’t found his candidate? He best get the ball rolling, or he’s going to have to dole out more money than he wants.
By Edmund on January 23rd, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I think Silence the Noise has a great idea about Waldorf running the department of administration and Davis for governor. There actually seems more genuine excitement about Tom possibly running than there has been about any of the big three. Would he be willing to do so however? Anyone know how to start a draft movement?
By cschoen on January 23rd, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I am one of Dr. Nelsen’s former students, and from what I hear I think there is something to the rumors. There are lot of current and former students who are saying he is in and are excited about his candidacy Brent is the type of candidate a wide range of people can get exited about. He is strong on faith and traditional family values, he can work with people from all viewpoints (as evidenced by the fact that he has long chaired a department with every imaginable political perspective), and he is an engaging public speaker as well. While lots of the potential candidates for governor are talking about fixing education and drawing new business to South Carolina, Nelsen actually has some knowledge relevant to both these goals. He’s spent a huge part of his life in the business of education, and he has been involved in the public schools his children have attended for years. As far as bringing business to the state, Nelsen knows a ton about European politics and trade, who better to continue to attract companies like BMW and Michelin to South Carolina? I think Nelsen is serious about making a run, and I hope a lot of South Carolina Republicans will urge him to jump in. I know a lot of Furman students and alumni who are already really excited.
By P Branton on January 23rd, 2009 at 2:40 pm
OBAMA……wants change.??
So….how is this change for the RINO party..???
Aren’t theses the jackals (along with the DEMS) that have gotten US where we are at…????
What solutions have any of them screamed about that would benefit ALL South Carolinians….???? What LEADERSHIP qualities have they demonstrated….??
What Public/Private partnerships have they implemented…???? Who have they …FIRED..???!?!
Have they stood up to Bobby and Glenn…..???? About what…???
How many times have they been at Mark Sanford’s side ……or James Clyburn’s…..or Robert Ford’s……or Gilda’s …….???????
By wmcarthur on January 23rd, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Furman professors are now confirming that Nelsen is running. Could he be the Sanford surprise to fill the vaccuum created by the Establishment Three? Let’s hope so. Nelsen is an incredible guy and the only one out there expressing any sort of vision for both reforming South Carolina and reinventing the GOP. He is not borne to any interest group and is a committed Christian, teacher, and leader but is no ideologue. He could be the future of this state.
By wmcarthur on January 23rd, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Furman professors are now confirming that Nelsen is running. Could he be the Sanford surprise to fill the vaccuum created by the Establishment Three? Let’s hope so. Nelsen is an incredible guy and the only one out there expressing any sort of vision for both reforming South Carolina and reinventing the GOP. He is not borne to any interest group and is a committed Christian, teacher, and leader but is no ideologue. He could be the future of this state.
By Teach on January 23rd, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Nelsen will be a non-factor if Davis gets in.
By BIN News Editorial Staff on January 24th, 2009 at 12:05 am
S.C. has not seen such meaningless fiction since The State published sic(k) willie’s infamous letter titled: “My Side of the Domestic Violence Story.”
http://blogs.thestate.com/bradwarthensblog/2005/08/what_i_cut_from.html
will, is Tom paying you under the table or are you hoping for a pardon from the gub’ner so Tom might hire you down the road. Neither is going to happen.
By Calvin on January 24th, 2009 at 1:32 am
C’mon, guys. Nelson? Lemme go ahead and say it so we can stop wasting space. No one has ever heard of him, and no one will vote for a freakin’ professor. But Nelson, at least, deserves the mention I just gave him, whereas Tumpy and Merrill are not even worth bothering to dismiss.
Moving on…
Big three nice enough guys, nothing really “wrong” with any of them. But they are not strong enough to carry the reform movement forward at a time when it is just getting started.
Davis looks good. Wouldn’t have to give up his Senate seat, and already spent six years fighting for reform. Got a solid, big-picture grasp of the issues that no one else who has been mentioned can come close on. I don’t know the guy well, and think he’s smart but didn’t know if he had the pizazz to move the crowds, but I hear that he does and people respond to him. That’s what you need to win. Plus, he raised a lot of money and he knows how to do it after working with Sanford for so long. For that matter, he does have statewide campaign experience with the governor. All important factors.
I am warming to the idea of putting him out there. Of course, I have decided to support Bobby Jindal for president and I’ve never even heard the guy speak, so take this with a grain of salt. But I think this is the time for a real superstar who can be trusted. One thing Davis has that these other guys lack is sincerity. He is also a team player and his allies really like him. That’s the buzz I’m hearing. Down sides are that he just ran a race and has no statewide name ID (a problem any legislator will have, and that is hard to overcome). But if someone is out front for reform early and often and in a substantive manner, and gets the blessing of the reform crowd like Sanford and Club for Growth and the SC Policy Council, that could make a difference.
All a long shot in theory, but if he jumps in after next summer and the climate is right, I like his odds.
Course, maybe this is just wishful thinking and water cooler talk from a bunch of white guys in ties, but a lot of us think this is an interesting idea and we’d like to see a real reformer jump in the way Sanford did in 2002.
By cschoen on January 24th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
I wouldn’t write Nelsen off just because he is not well known within SC political circles… yet. With the way Republican political fortunes have been playing out, being identified as a party outsider could be helpful. He hasn’t been part of the problem, and he doesn’t come into the middle of all the Columbia drama with any enemies. As far as him being a professor, Newt Gingrich was a professor too, and he engineered one of the greatest Republican victories of all time. Finally, in the age of the internet, we write off unknown contenders with new ideas at our own peril. I can think of another former professor who nobody had ever heard of… currently he’s sitting in the Oval Office laughing at all of us who said he had no chance.
Politics is changing, and while we shouldn’t change our principles, we must change our approach to elections. We need new candidates, new ideas, and a new intelligent approach to the issues. Nelsen brings all of these things; hear him out before you write him off.
By Upstate_GOP on January 25th, 2009 at 12:28 am
There is virtually no one in SCGOP politico circles who thinks there is any truth to these rumors about Dr. Brent Nelsen running for gov. In fact most think it is a joke. Some of the people in this comments section who are saying that these rumors have been confirmed are former students of Nelsen’s and/or Furman College Republicans.
By the way, has anyone heard that Blease Graham is thinking of running for governor, according to some USC poli-sci students? Oh, and I also heard that Dabo Sweeney might be making a run for the Senate from a very reliable source on the Clemson football team.
By John on January 26th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
C’mon guys. Nelsen?
He’s a professor of European politics at a small liberal arts school that most folks in SC link with the split with the Southern Baptists over the school’s liberalism, and he has no elective experience.
The race will be between Barrett and McMaster. McMaster will draw the Midlands crowd. Barrett will attract the Upcountry voters, and the race will be for the Low country. Davis could be a spoiler, but that is the race.
Meanwhile, the Dem’s are waiting which office Joe Erwin will run for, the US Senate or Governor, as no other Dem can match his fund raising ability.
Sigh… I wish David Wilkins was running.
By MidlandsDem on January 26th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Joe Erwin does not want to run for Senate. Dems are waiting to see if Erwin runs for governor – if Erwin does then some of the other potentials like James Smith, Vincent Sheheen, etc. will be deciding who is going to run for the open Lt. Gov. seat and the open Atty. Gen. seat. That is the word from part officials around Columbia.
By Terrance Poore on January 27th, 2009 at 1:01 am
Looks like these 450 people are on board with Dr. Nelsen…..
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?sid=fe728cfca63ba0e7a1b5e133301b4664&gid=46529718385
While I’ve never heard of this guy until now, if some grassroots facebook group for Nelsen has that many people these career politicians may need to worry about their approach to this election.