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Predictions, Predictions

By fitsnews • on November 3, 2008

As Campaign 2008 approaches its final 24 hours (thank GOD!), it’s time to break out the old crystal ball here at FITS and figure out who’s going to be the next President of the United States.

We’ve been looking at fresh polling data all morning, and as far as we can tell Obama has this race in the bag.

McCain is certainly in a much better position today than he was a week ago, but he remains in the unenviable position of having to sweep all the toss-up states and steal at least one of the “leaning Obama” states.

Which means we should know relatively early tomorrow night who the next President is going to be.

Simply put, if McCain loses any one of these four states … Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or Virginia … the race is pretty much over.

Here are the latest polling averages from the states which will decide tomorrow’s election, with their electoral votes in parentheses:

Arizona (10)- McCain +3.5%
Florida (27)- Obama +2.5%
Georgia (15)- McCain +3%
Indiana (11)- Mccain +1.4%
Missouri (11)- Tie
Montana (3)- McCain +3.8%
North Carolina (15)- Tie
North Dakota (3)- Tie
Ohio (20)- Obama +3.8%
Virginia (13)- Obama +4.2%

Now, here are the latest polling averages from the “leaning Obama” states, at least one of which McCain must steal:

Colorado (9)- Obama +5.5%
Minnesota (10)- Obama +9.8%
Nevada (5)- Obama +6.2%
New Mexico (5)- Obama +7.3%
Pennsylvania (21)- Obama +7.6%

Simply put, all Obama has to do to win the White House is hold onto those five states, which means if he wins Pennsylvania early in the night, McCain is suddenly on the defensive heading out West even if the GOP nominee manages to pull off the unlikely early coup of sweeping all four of his “must-win” Eastern states - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Can McCain do it?

Much has been made of the so-called ‘Bradley effect’ during the course of this election, or the likelihood that Obama is getting an artificial 3-5% bump in the polls on the basis of his race.

Similarly, McCain’s people have griped frequently that the formula for determining polling samples is biased against their candidate, as it includes people who are unlikely to actually show up and vote on election day.

So what’s our prediction?

Taking everything into account, we’re predicting an Obama win … although we suspect it will be closer than people think. Our electoral college prediction? Obama in the 290’s, McCain in the 240’s.

Now … to your predictions … [poll id="26"]

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Comments

By Natasha on November 3rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm

If only McCain’s messaging had been better early on I don’t think he’d lose this race…

By susan on November 3rd, 2008 at 4:27 pm

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

By Silence Dogood on November 3rd, 2008 at 4:50 pm

“Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.”

Well a national popular vote system by state compact would (a) not be legal under the constitution unless ratified by the Supreme Court (b) mean even LESS attention for the smaller states as for instance there are more Republican’s, Independents and Democrats in probably EACH of the five burroughs of New York City as there are in any of the least populous 10-15 states. The top 100 most populous metro region cities in the country have well over half the U.S. population. Wouldn’t campaigns of limited monies just focus on where they could get more puch for the power - i.e. cities. A national vote would create even MORE “flyover” country for national politicos.

Then there is the issue of federalism (states having individual autonomy and independence and not just being small sub-regions of an over arching all powerful federal government) that really bothers a lot of people.