Wait … It’s Not Over?
For weeks, we’ve been operating under the assumption that Barack Obama was going to be the next President of the United States, meaning we’ve already begun insisting on cash payments from all advertisers and started burying our profits in the backyard.
However, according to John McCain’s people, we – and the rest of the country – may have been jumping the gun a bit.
McCain’s campaign sent out a memo yesterday saying that the presidential race has tightened, and that their candidate is “functionally tied across battleground states,” and is picking up big chunks of so-called NASCAR dads and Wal Mart moms.
Also, former Bill Clinton mastermind Dick Morris is saying that as long as Obama’s support stays below 50% in the days leading up to the election that McCain will win – no matter how big the number of undecideds.
Morris’ point is that Obama simply has no more room to “grow his numbers,” which is a point that was reiterated in the campaign memo by McCain’s lead pollster, Bill McInturff.
So does John McCain – who’s been written off twice now in his quest for the presidency – really have a chance?
For the answer to that question, we check in with Washington Post reporter (and blogger extraordinaire) Chris Cillizza, who continues to spit out an impressive daily barrage of political prognostication:
So, what do we make of the (McCain) memo?
McInturff’s argument that the race is closing is on sound ground as it relates to recent history. Presidential elections do tend to close as the end nears and McCain, by all accounts, has been underperforming among soft Republicans who may well be coming home to him in these final days.
And, there are some national polls that show some level of tightening. Check out pollster.com’s map of all national surveys and notice the slight uptick for McCain and slight dip for Obama of late.
Another Washington Post reporter, Michael Abramowitz, has an interesting column in yesterday’s paper about the inaccuracy of national polling, saying that America “could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.”
We stopped by McCain’s South Carolina headquarters last night and indeed noticed a discernible up-tick in optimism from the last time we visited … almost like they knew something we didn’t.
So … can John McCain pull off yet another political comeback and win the White House despite some polls that show him trailing Obama by as many as 15 points?
To your votes …
Do You Think John McCain Can Beat Barack Obama on Tuesday?
- Yes (64%, 146 Votes)
- No (36%, 82 Votes)
Total Voters: 228
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Comments
By Gen. Longstreet on October 30th, 2008 at 9:43 am
He will win if he eschews the “attack them in the middle where they are thin” strategy. Flank ‘em, John.
By Rob W. on October 30th, 2008 at 9:48 am
If you voted “yes”, you should put your money where your mouth is and scoot over to Intrade to place a bet at better than 5:1 odds ( http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/ ). If you bet $162 on McCain today, you can rake in $1000 on election day.
Not that Intrade is a great predictor, but if 65% of you are currently so sure about McCain, you should be in great shape to make some cash.
By Rob W. on October 30th, 2008 at 9:51 am
General- I think proposing to buy up troubled mortgages with taxpayer dollars is plenty enough movement on the left flank for my taste.
By Garnet Spy on October 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
I’ve said for over a month that McCain will be the likely winner. This based on historical demographics and the reticence of voters to swing too far from the status quo, unless things are really dismal (Jimmy Carter and G.H.W. Bush).
http://garnetspy.com/2008/09/22/why-and-how-mccain-will-win/
A posting with a link to a very interesting tool by Boston.com emphasized the real fragility of the Obama polls: http://garnetspy.com/2008/09/29/obama-wont-pass-college/
By Agnes, Funky on October 30th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Cool Tuneage today Willie! And Barry-O is going to win this election-o!
He makes my soul sing like a black woman!!!!!!!
By Sally Calder on October 30th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
if you look at poll internals, you realize they mean nothing. pollsters have their own agenda and don’t worry about accuracy until the very end. and even then, they are historically wrong. writing john mccain off is just stupid. he is going to win, and i believe win big.
By % on October 30th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pJL7TRM00Y
By Freddie Guy on October 30th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Sally:
With all due respect, disregarding polling, discrediting pollsters and journalists (and their part in the persuasion of voters), and truly believing that John McCain is going to win big? is just stupid.
My take: I look for the African-Americans to vote in droves and actually skew the election towards a Barack Obama win larger than polls prognosticate! Look for Obama to win larger than polls predict in States that have large African-American populations.
Republican strategists will have to come up with a better (or smarter) plan that the old divide and conquer campaigns of Lee Atwater (Muslim, non-citizen, Socialist, took an oath on the Koran, will pain the White House black). The Repub base is falling for it!, but it is not winning over the independents. Independents are actually turned off by the strategy. One needs Independents to win a national election.
Unfortunately, we in SC (and other deep south states) still have the underlying racism that makes the “divide and conquer” strategy effective. The polls show it. The gay robo-call in the York/Lancaster senate district could still prove effective…
Fortunately, the rest of the country got over racism. They demand more from their politics and the Obama message resonates.
Obama will win!
Freddie Guy
By Sally Calder on October 30th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
freddie, racism is not what is doing obama in. there are many, many things, but i suppose many people will “cling” to that belief on tuesday.
By rick on October 30th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Freddie , the racism is in voting for Hussein…..since 35% of the abortions performed in this country are on African-American women, to vote for Hussein is to vote for elimenating the African-American race. Now thats racist. Anybody interested in the real story of Husseins win over Hildebeast….try http://wewillnotbesilent2008.com/video/index.htm in addition to seeing what Hussein perpetrated on his own people in order to win the nomination in Texas…His people are doing some of the same during early voting….
By Agnes on October 30th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Sally-you are talking gooberish! Barack Obama is going to win this in a landslide. All the old white racist tyrants will then beg for the koolaid…
By Mike Reino on October 30th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
I think 1948 isn’t the most appropriate election. No that I was there in ‘48, but this reminds me of ‘92 a lot, especially the last week. Bush 41 was down badly, but started gaining in the last week. At the very end, he plateaued and lost. Maybe calling Clinton/Gore ‘bozos’ hurt, but those last five points are the hardest. McCain isn’t gaining even that well.
Obama 52-45,and 319-219 in what really matters….
By Agnes on October 30th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
I bet even Cindy McCain is secretly voting for Obama. Notice the black glove fetish…she always has them close by.
What about this scenario:
All minority males and females and ‘others’: VOTE=Obama
A lotta white females: VOTE=Obama
Whitey males: vote=McCain.
………….
62%, Obama takes it.
By Sally Calder on October 30th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
barack may very well win on tuesday. none of us will know until (hopefully) tuesday night. however, there is a big difference between obama and bill clinton. clinton was a moderate democrat. obama can try to hide his ultra-liberal voting history, but most people still realize he is on the far left. the majority of americans view themselves just right of center. time and again, the democratic party nominates a far-left candidate and then can’t understand why they lost. this particular election, not only did they nominate a far-left candidate, but they did it fraudulently. many democrats took note, and he lost them with what they witnessed. how many vote for him in spite of that we’ll find out on tuesday.
By Gen. Longstreet on October 31st, 2008 at 9:40 am
Send in Pickett’s boys! Armistead, Garnett — go, go, go!