Swing State Update
It always amazes us how intently folks follow national public opinion polls during presidential races … because let’s face it, people … they don’t matter.
Just ask Al Gore, who won the popular vote in 2000 but came up short in the Electoral College (i.e. the vote that counts) after the Supreme Court effectively awarded Florida’s electoral votes – and the White House – to George W. Bush.
Right now, there is currently not a single national poll that shows Republican John McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama. In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, McCain’s deficit this week ranges anywhere from 2 to 14 points, with the average of all the major polls showing him trailing Obama by 6.4%.
But what’s going on in the polls that really matter – polls in the so called “swing states?”
Here’s a breakdown of polling averages from this past week in states that are either leaning Obama, pure tossups or leaning McCain …
Leaning Obama:
Colorado (9 electoral votes) – Obama +6%
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) – Obama +8.7%
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) – Obama +8.4%
Virginia (13 electoral votes) – Obama +8.1%
Tossups:
Florida (27 electoral votes) – Obama +3.2%
Indiana (11 electoral votes) – McCain +3.8%
Missouri (11 electoral votes) – Obama +2.5%
Nevada (5 electoral votes) – Obama +4.2%
North Carolina (15 electoral votes) – Obama +1.2%
North Dakota (3 electoral votes) – McCain +4%
Ohio (20 electoral votes) – Obama +3.2%
Leaning McCain:
Georgia (15 electoral votes) – McCain +6.8%
Ordinarily, states like Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania would be on this list, but Obama is averaging double-digit polling leads in these three states, causing many analysts to put them into the “solid Obama” category.
That puts the current electoral vote count at 286 for Obama (or more than the 270 required to win), 155 for McCain and 97 up for grabs … in other words, not a particularly good spot for the Republican nominee.
So … is there any way McCain can win?
Uhh … sure … it’s just going to take the same sort of miracle he got during the GOP primary
Comments
By Miri on October 18th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
The only poll that counts is 11/4.
Please whatever you do, go vote.
By rick on October 20th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Amen
By susan on October 21st, 2008 at 1:17 pm
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com