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Moving Chairs?

Giving the leftist, big government zeal of the “GOP-controlled” South Carolina Supreme Soviet (a.k.a. State Senate), it really shouldn’t matter all that much whether or not the “Republican leadership” in this debilitated … err, deliberative body decides to move its committee chairmanships from the current system of party affiliation to one that’s based on seniority.

Or should it?

After all, what the hell does it even mean to “move committee chairmanships from the current system of party affiliation to one that’s based on seniority?” Well, aside from the fact that if current policies hold a bunch of undocumented workers would likely handle the actual moving …

Look, we get the initial confusion over the importance of this story, honestly, we do. It’s inside baseball. And we have no doubt you’ll be even more confused after you’re done reading it.

And again … when you’ve got so-called Republican committee chairmen like Sen. David Thomas of Greenville bending over to do the bidding of left-of-Streisand groups like the S.C. Appleseed Legal Justice Center, what possible difference does it make if a few Democrats managed to finagle their way into committee chairmanships?

Well, we’ve gone out of our way to show you how it would make a difference … and show you why status quo power-brokers like Senate Finance Chairman Hugh Leatherman, Senate Majority Leader Harvey Peeler and Senate President Glenn McConnell are reportedly working behind-the-scenes to pull off the most corrupt bargain at the S.C. State House since Democratic party-switchers gave the GOP its majority seven years ago.

THE TRENDS THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’

This seemingly innocuous plan was first hatched prior to the June primary season, when it appeared that conservative Republicans would make some significant gains in the State Senate. And with one notable exception - the defeat of Katrina Shealy by Sen. Jake Knotts - they did.

Former Sanford Chief-of-Staff Tom Davis trounced incumbent RINO Catherine Ceips, conservative Lee Bright defeated RINO Rep. Scott Talley, conservative Mike Rose beat incumbent RINO Randy Scott and conservative Shane Martin ousted incumbent Jim Ritchie.

Additionally, conservative Rep. Phillip Shoopman had no opposition in his race to replace retiring Sen. Lewis Vaughn, and conservative Rep. Mick Mulvaney is running strong in an increasingly Republican district to replace retiring Sen. Greg Gregory.

Right away, you’ve got six new conservative faces, all Republicans who are generally expected to cruise to wins in November.

In fact, Republicans are only likely to lose one seat this fall - the Aiken County district tenuously held by Shane Massey, a questionable conservative who’s currently trailing his opponent.

Assuming things remain as they are, then, we’re basically looking at a 26-20 “GOP” majority come January 2009.

Now … let’s take a look inside this “new” GOP majority, starting with the incumbents …

THE SENATE’S IDEOLOGICAL BREAKDOWN

Without question, Senators Larry Grooms, Greg Ryberg, Danny Verdin and Chip Campsen are all die-hard fiscal conservative votes. Lock ‘em down, people, they’re bona-fide taxpayer heroes.

Incumbents Kevin Bryant and Glenn McConnell are also generally reliable on fiscal issues, although the latter is becoming more and more suspect given his behind-the-scenes maneuvering.

Senators Paul Campbell, Mike Fair, Wes Hayes and Harvey Peeler are all “hit-or-miss” types, typically siding with the big government majority but occasionally covering their fiscal conservative flanks.

That leaves ten RINO incumbents who consistently join with the Senate’s 19 Democrats to carry this state’s big government water. These ten are: former Democrats Hugh Leatherman, Billy O’Dell and Luke Rankin, and RINO’s John Courson, Larry Martin, Jake Knotts, Thomas Alexander, Ronnie Cromer, Ray Cleary and David Thomas.

So that’s how the incumbents line up … now where do we plug the newcomers into this mix?

Obviously, Bright, Davis, Mulvaney, Shoopman and Rose would align themselves with the four conservative die-hards, thus creating a new pro-taxpayer nucleus of nine votes.

This nucleus expands to twelve votes if you count Bryant, McConnell and newcomer Shane Martin - which is double the size of the existing conservative voting bloc.

More importantly, if our electoral predictions play out, for the first time fiscal conservatives would enjoy a larger “core group” in the GOP than the RINO’s, meaning that the four “hit-or-miss” Republicans - Campbell, Fair, Hayes and Peeler - would find themselves as key swing votes on fiscal conservative issues.

Alright, alright … your head is probably hurting right about now from all this ideological math, so let’s get back to the whole point of our story - the would-be “corrupt bargain.”

DESPERATE TIMES = DESPERATE MEASURES

Clearly, the State Senate is going to be a radically different place in 2009 than it was this year, with lots of fresh fiscal conservative blood.

Senators Leatherman, Peeler and McConnell recognize this reality acutely, and more importantly they recognize that all these new fiscally conservative Republicans are going to be placed on committees where they will begin earning seniority within the party structure.

With fourteen standing committees, the potential impact of all this new blood on the governing structure in the Senate is much more pronounced that its impact on the floor. After all, as any State House veteran will tell you, power in both legislative chambers is wielded almost exclusively at the committee level.

If Republicans stick to their current rule of committee leadership based on party affiliation, fiscal conservatives will hold clout disproportionate to their still small numbers - particularly with Grooms, Ryberg and Verdin already holding committee chairmanships.

If a move is made by the “Republican” leadership to assign committee chairmanships based solely on seniority, however, then that clout becomes vastly diminished, with little damage to this handful of GOP leaders … provided of course Leatherman can cut a deal to preserve his chairmanship of the biggest committee of them all.

PULLING OFF THE COUP

Here’s how the “corrupt bargain” would work - McConnell holds onto Judiciary because he’s already got seniority on that committee, while Peeler holds onto Medical Affairs because he’s already got seniority there.

That leaves the all-powerful Senate Finance Committee - where Leatherman is outranked in terms of seniority by Democrats Nikki Setzler and John Land.

To keep his base of power, Leatherman has to make a play for his spot, which is surprisingly easier than it might sound.

Knowing that Democrats currently have zero committee chairmen, Leatherman can vastly enhance their power by agreeing to give them between four and five of the coveted slots - provided of course they pick the right ones (i.e. NOT Finance).

Setzler, for example, could take over the Labor, Commerce and Industry committee (thus removing conservative Republican Greg Ryberg) while Land could take over at Transportation (thus removing conservative Republican Larry Grooms). Meanwhile, Democrat Phil Leventis could take over at Agriculture (thus removing conservative Republican Danny Verdin). Democrat Yancey McGill would likely be offered Fish, Game and Forestry, which is currently chaired by retiring Republican Greg Gregory.

Voilà … not only does Leatherman get to keep his Finance spot, but he strips three fiscal conservatives (each of whom he can’t stand) of their committee chairmanships while simultaneously forcing all of those brand new conservative Senators to stand at the end of a much longer seniority line.

ADD IT UP

Of course, to pull this feat off Leatherman will need 31 votes - or two-thirds of the Senate, which is the number required to effect a change to the rules of the body.

Right off the bat, he’s got 20 overjoyed Democrats, along with himself, Peeler and McConnell. Plus he can count on Senators Courson and Thomas - who will get to retain their coveted Banking and Education Chairmanships, respectively, given the fact both have served in the Senate for a quarter of a century.

Another vote will come from Billy O’Dell, who was forced to the back of the line when he switched parties but would now get to leapfrog several of his GOP colleagues for a minor chairmanship. He’ll probably cannibalize either Jake Knotts’ Invitations Committee or Thomas Alexander’s General Committee, depending on where it helps Leatherman most, but either way O’Dell and whoever doesn’t get screwed on the committee shift are both votes Leatherman can count on.

Speaking of which, are you counting? He’s up to 27 votes …

A lot of the maneuvering here depends on the decision of Democrat John Matthews, who will likely be offered the chairmanship of the Rules committee - a fifth Democratic pickup.

Obviously, that would leave current GOP Rules Chairman Larry Martin out in the cold, but it would overjoy Republican Wes Hayes, who would get to keep his Ethics committee slot, and deliver Leatherman another vote … his 28th.

To find his remaining three votes, Leatherman has some work to do - but given his power over the budget we have no doubt he could accomplish it in short order. Sure, he’d have to swallow the anger of at least two friendly Republicans who would lose committee chairmanships (he could care less about the three unfriendly ones), but our guess is that Knotts’ in particular wouldn’t likely kick up much of a fuss if he got booted from Invitations.

Plus, Leatherman would no doubt offer him plenty of pork as well as the satisfaction of stymieing the conservative agenda in the Senate for years to come. At the end of the day, count’ him in … 29 votes.

Now … where does Leatherman get the last two pieces of his puzzle? Our guess is he goes to Ronnie Cromer and Ray Cleary, neither of whom is really in the mix for a chairmanship, anyway. Besides, both Senators have a habit of backing Leatherman’s plays, and we have no doubt their reward in pork will be great - all for basically holding their places in line.

Another wild-card is Luke Rankin - who like O’Dell was denied a chairmanship when he switched parties. There’s an outside chance he could pick up a minor chairmanship amid the shuffle, depending on who Leatherman needs at the fringes - and who’s willing to “take one for the team.”

The bottom line is that assuming Leatherman can get two - and maybe three - Republicans to submit to losing minor chairmanships for the “greater good,” he might even have room to provide “covering votes” for Peeler and McConnell, both of whom will no doubt be itching to symbolically vote against what will be perceived as an abdication of GOP rule.

THE ENDGAME

As far-fetched as some of these scenarios may sound, the word we’re getting from insiders is that this “corrupt bargain” is not only underway, but that Leatherman is already closing in on his magic number and working to identify the “covering votes” for Peeler and McConnell.

We’re also told that both Peeler and McConnell are working hard to help him get there - particularly if it means they get to vote against the measure personally.

Hopefully, none of this will come to pass - which, incidentally, is the point of this article.

Frankly, it would be a damn shame if fiscal conservatives - after doubling their voting power - ended up getting dumped from three committees and had all of their new members get sent to the very back of a new seniority line that includes actual Democrats in addition to the ones pretending to be Republicans.

Of course, we wouldn’t put such a “corrupt bargain” past any of the current leaders of South Carolina’s “Supreme Soviet.”

Nor will we be even remotely surprised if they manage to pull it off … “covering votes” to spare.

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