Endangered, Angry Elephants
PANIC ON THE REPUBLICAN PLAINS IN SOUTH CAROLINA
FITSNews - July 24, 2008 - The so-called “reddest state in America” is in the midst of a pronounced “purpling,” as South Carolina voters are fleeing the Republican Party in droves and African-American voter registration is at an all-time high.
The only question is whether this Stalingrad-style “pincers” will translate into a stunning South Carolina victory for Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama over Republican John McCain? And at the state level, will there be a shift in the balance of power in the S.C. General Assembly?
Recent polls show McCain enjoying a 45%-39% lead over Obama in South Carolina, with libertarian Bob Barr getting 5% of the vote and 11% remaining undecided. McCain seems safe for the moment, but remember that just four years ago, GOP incumbent George W. Bush trounced Democrat John Kerry in South Carolina 58%-40%.
Down in the legislature, even the most optimistic Democrats aren’t projecting a shift in control of either the State Senate or the House of Representatives, but several Republican elected officials have confided to FITSNews that the GOP’s margin will be “significantly smaller.” Of course, we just laughed at that and told them Democrats were already in control in the state legislature, which they are.
Anyway, any one who follows politics in this state knows that the surprise story of our presidential primaries was that Democrats outdrew Republicans by a 525,000 to 446,000 margin. But what happens when you take a peek inside those numbers?
First of all, GOP leaders were quick to blame the gap - which took them completely by surprise - on the convenient bogeyman of African-American voter registration.
Blacks were just registering in record numbers because of Obama’s candidacy, they said.
That’s partly true. African-American voter registration is at 130% its normal level right now (at least), and the Obama campaign is devoting all of its time and resources in South Carolina on one thing - registering even more blacks.
But Obama’s “black wave” is just one part of the equation.
According to sources who spoke with FITSNews on the condition of anonymity, January’s primary election also saw “record Republican desertion” and what one pollster said was “over a hundred thousand Republicans not just sitting out, but crossing the line and voting Democrat.”
We don’t have specific numbers on the extent of Republican disaffection (we hope to get those digits for you soon) but another pollster described the shift as “unprecedented in the last two decades” as well as “more pronounced along the coastal regions of the state.”
The GOP reaction?
“Republicans are putting on a brave face,” one of the pollsters told us. “But privately they’re watching helplessly as a whole chunk of their base just disappears.”
Developing …
Comments
By John on July 24th, 2008 at 7:30 am
We have proven, on the State and National level, that we are unable to govern.
Republicans are more interested in politics than government.
Why should anyone vote for us.
By Rylyn on July 24th, 2008 at 7:47 am
I don’t believe the State House and Senate are the only place you will see a “shift” for SC Lawmakers. We just may have a new US Congressman in District 2. Rob Miller who is running as a democrat has a strong base in the low country and there are a lot of Midlands Republicans who really aren’t happy with the incumbant after last months elections. I think Joe better get ready to spend some money and he’s lost a few contributors recently. I understand Miller has some money behind him. All those Democrats that never voted before last month will be back out in numbers to vote for Obama and let’s bet they like “D’s” across the ticket!
By rick on July 24th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Leave your base and your base will leave you. Most republicans want a transparent government that deals with the problems at hand. Keep you’re meat hooks out of our pockets, leave the massive social engineering projects to the Dems. Giving public dollars to every yahoo that suffers bad karma is a massive misuse. Record deficits, sale of the nation to foreign investors, nation building
By rick on July 24th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Sorry for the interruption. The issues facing this state and nation are being badly mismanaged and neither party has the right to ask our forbearance or support. Much like private industry, politicians fail at making the hard decisions that can lead us into the 22nd century. Doing a Jimmy Carter does nothing for the people whose support you want. Visionary leadership is absent from both parties and until someone with a clear vision for America comes along and lays out the road for the future, the republicans will continue to lose their faithful.
By Brandon on July 24th, 2008 at 9:01 am
With regard to voter turnout in the primaries..remember the Republican primary was held on a holiday weekend.
By Silence Dogood on July 24th, 2008 at 9:04 am
“We don’t have specific numbers on the extent of Republican disaffection (we hope to get those digits for you soon) but another pollster described the shift as “unprecedented in the last two decades” as well as “more pronounced along the coastal regions of the state.”
While I agree there has been an influx of more moderate or even left of center voters at along the coast - S.C. has not become MORE likely to vote Democratic over the past twenty years, if anything, even less so. With 10 of 11 state wide office currently being held by Republicans (and the one that Democrats do hold being held onto by a whisker) the Democratic waves is far from ariving. I would note that Obama has the best chance to win S.C. since Jimmy Carter, and he actually could, but is still a loooong shot to do so.
By StupidShouldHurtMore (SSHM) on July 24th, 2008 at 9:46 am
#3 . . .
That’s just it. The base didn’t just leave: They were shown the door. The days of the “Big Tent” Republicans appears to be at an end. It’s a shame as well. The party of smaller, more responsible government is falling in on itself. Those that remain, from what I have seen, are unwilling to build or re-build coalitions that could serve to strengthen the party. Either you are “x” Republican that fits “y” mold or you’re out.
I’ve always wondered how you fit so many elephants into a small tent. Well . . . I have my answer now, sadly.
- SSHM
By It's doo doo, baby! on July 24th, 2008 at 10:20 am
The pincer movement was invented by the Romans, not the Nazis.
By Rylyn on July 24th, 2008 at 10:24 am
#5)
What holiday was January 19th that would have kept Republican’s from the polls?
It was sleeting, with a chance of snow, which could have been a factor but I don’t think MLK day would keep a lot of R’s from voting. Personally, I would drive through rain, sleet or snow to vote in a Republican Primary and if I thought for a chance I was taking MLK weekend off I would have voted absentee.
The Dems are just more committed this year. More young people are drinking the “Kool-aid”. The amount of High School Seniors and College Students that are falling at Obama’s feet is scarey. As Republicans we have to get serious fast or we will loose it this year.
By I'll Have Some of What #2 is Having on July 24th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Rylyn says, “Rob Miller who is running as a democrat has a strong base in the low country.”
If that’s true, would you please explain to me why the overwhelming majority of Miller’s paltry campaign contributions are coming from out-of-district and out-of-state?
And while I won’t necessarily disagree that some midland’s GOPers are upset with Congressman Wilson after last months Jakie/Katrina race, if you think those same voters will abandon Wilson to vote for Miller, fire up another bowl.
Obama won’t have coat tails long enough to cause a shift in SC-2…or anywhere else of significance in SC this year. Dems will be lucky to pick up a House seat or two and the GOP will STILL enjoy majorities in both houses of the Legislature. Due to the “incumbent-protection act” drawn districts here, there just aren’t a whole lot of GOP districts where the Dems can be competitive or vice versa.
Keep up that misplaced optimism, though, Blues. It will make Republican victories in SC in an otherwise dismal national election year for the GOP even sweeter…
By Earl Capps on July 24th, 2008 at 11:03 am
SSHM has a point - a lot of GOP strategists failed to see the evolving electorate, and failed to recognize what the netroots crowd has - how we communicate changes how we see the world around us and how we view issues.
It’s not that a lot of voters have become Democratic so much as the GOP isn’t communicating as clearly. Even worse, among younger voters, they don’t connect at all.
It’s like going to a debate with good information, but being unable to speak the language. All the facts and all the concerns will fall on deaf ears.
The political world of 1994 is not the world of 2008, or even of 2000, but there are a lot of GOP operatives who are still resting on their laurels who think past results guarantee future victories.
The Democrats, kept losing, purging their ranks and bringing on new people, until they found winners, a changed political environment - or both. Just like three years of thrashing by Lee eventually produced a General Grant, they ended up with campaign operatives who aren’t hung up on winning past elections.
Perhaps the GOP was right on the key issues from the early Bush days. We are more secure, our enemies are on the run, and tax cuts put new life in the economy. But voters move on once problems are solved, so the failure to address new issues such as reining in the federal budget and addressing energy security issues has left a lot of voters unhappy with the GOP, but uncertain of where to turn.
Obama has scored a lot of points by making it clear he understands people are concerned, even if he’s not too good at coming up with clear answers. So long as he is just a candidate, he can get away with it.
While the GOP is getting much of the blame for not having a relevant and principled message, the reality is the Democrats don’t have one either. Whoever figures this out first will be the new majority party.
By Rylyn on July 24th, 2008 at 11:29 am
#11)
I hope you are right but I see “Change” on the horizon…Like Obama, not sure what that change might be but I’m afraid it’s coming!
For the record, I’m a died in the Wool Republican not a “blue”. I’m just a realistic Republican. I wasn’t a McCain supporter during the primary but I am now…just because the thought of living in Obamaland is more than I can bare. But unfortunately there are a lot of people out there and yes even in good ole South Carolina that will vote for Obama. Those same people who never voted before January 2008 will be back in November.
As for the Wilson / Miller race, I have heard some die hard Republicans who say they will never vote Wilson again, they will either vote for the Dem or just not vote. I guess we will just have to wait 103 days to find out.
By Katherine Jenerette on July 24th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
As a 100% Real Republican(capital ‘R’) I am more than concerned with the direction we are going in. This is from my June 10th 1st District US Congressional primary ‘concession’ Press Release:
“…But for now, the real race will be in November’s elections. The battleground is the Presidency and the Congress. And, whether we like it or not, four hundred and thirty five elected representatives set the budget and policy agenda for this entire country.
The reality of the unavoidable ‘Obama Factor’ on the voter turn-out cannot be underestimated and our focus must be on Republican results not divisiveness.
The Democrats have successfully painted themselves as the party with a vision for the future and a party with ideas while we Republican’s have had great difficulty in articulating our ‘old’ but principled ideas of limited government, less taxation, national interest, etc. let alone come up with new ideas to deal with our nations future.
These are trying times and Novembers’ election is going to prove itself a historical moment in our nations history. There should be no doubt in any ones mind either Democrat or Republican: This Election 2008 is a fight for the soul of our nation.
We must do a better job reaching a conservative public that has seemed to have lost faith in both politics and politicians…”
We Republicans & Conservatives have to pull together and fight hard, but we need to be prepared to ‘take a punch’ in November and get back on our feet and fight. This election is about much more that 2008. It is about ideas and actions, and ideas and actions and ideas and actions. That is what the voters will understand and this fight will be fought in 2010, 2012, and on…
I wish I could be more help and do more, but right now my Army duties are having me spend more time away from ‘South-by-God-Carolina’ than in it - as duty calls.
Katherine
http://www.jenerette.org/katherine_jenerette.jpg
By Earl Capps on July 24th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Rylyn - I’m concerned about what lies ahead, but not in a panic.
Sure the Democrats had a much higher turnout, but some of the decline of the turnout in GOP primaries, as well as crossover was because when compared to 2000, the 2008 GOP primary was … well, it was boring.
Let’s face it - voters love a show. If it’s important enough to flood the state with signs, have candidates visit every town, factory and BBQ joint, and dump millions into mail and TV ads, voters perceive it as an important election and turn out.
Instead, most candidates skipped SC and the most visible campaign in terms of signage was Ron Paul’s flood of yard signs and homemade campaign banners hung from overpasses everywhere.
If you’d seen an all-out war take place, like the Bush-McCain war of 2000, I’m sure that GOP presidential primary turnout would have been at least 30% higher than what it was and you wouldn’t hear half the moaning and groaning you’re hearing now.
By Obama ahead in zogby poll for S.c. on July 24th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
I would suggest you see the zogby poll data where he shows Obama ahead in S.C. as follows:
http://www.zogby.com/50state/index.cfm
Summary:
Obama - 42%
McCain - 41%
Barr - 6%
Nader - 1%
Someone else - 3%
Undecided - 6%
Economic worries and Conservatives for Barr make this close. Obama needs super turnout from African-Americans and Independents.
Electoral Votes: 8, Too close to call
By Tim on July 24th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
It’s all over for McCain. People thought I was crazy when (well, I should stop right there, but…) I was saying this as soon as McCain won Florida. Obama is going to win in a landslide. As much as he’s tried to avert it (amnesty, etc.), McCain really is the heir to Goldwater. And Obama is much worse than LBJ. Keep in mind that Goldwater was really a suck-ass sell-out, though, just like every other ‘conservative’ who stayed in politics after the ’60s.
I’m soooo glad that “Reagan Republicanism” is finally damn over! McCain is primary evidence #1. Try to go wrap your heads around this one, because it’s true: Reagan was a total damn fake, beginning to end. Just figure the cost analysis to the Conservative Movement. He didn’t do a thing for it, but he provided cover for the Libs who now run the GOP.
Oh yeah, and did I mention that Lindsey Graham’s Democrat opponent is way, way, way more conservative than any Republican has ever been?: http://www.BobConleyForSenate.com
By Richard on July 24th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
http://www.takimag.com/site/article/the_dixiecrats_rise_again/
By Philip Branton on July 25th, 2008 at 6:49 am
Here’s an example why ……
http://www.greenvilleonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080725/NEWS01/807250327/-1/PluckPublicPhotoGalleries
THEY won’t STAND UP ..to do the right thing for the TAXPAYERS!!
They would rather get kickbacks from a METHANE Lollipop rather than generate TAX REVENUE for the TAXPAYERS…
We ARE GETTING CREAMED…..
By Rita on July 25th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
True,the Repub. don’t listen to their base (especially the conservative one),but I voted in the Dem primary (first time ever!)mainly because I can’t stand Hillary Clinton!–a reverse “Operation Chaos”! And I know many other people who did the same thing. The Repub. primary was Boring & we didn’t really have a choice because the country club Republicans had already “chosen” McCain. The Republicans need to follow Rush’s advice more & cream the Dems on the oil drilling issue & making us energy independent from foreign countries & companies. Pretty soon oil-rich Arabs & Hugo will be buying up the failing news media conglomerates & we’ll really turn into a Socialist country!
By Chet on July 27th, 2008 at 6:36 am
The SC GOP base has shrunk and average working class Carolinians are tired of the one issue campaigns and Libertarian philosophy that dominates current Republican agendas. Many Party leaders have become extremists and narrow in ideology. Citizens expect and want progress on solving problems and improving our State and country but are increasingly turned off . The polarization and deviseness fostered by the Bush administration has not helped. It’s hard to get grassroots citizens enthused about elections. Most South Carolinians are independent thinkers politically and don’t vote straight tickets like they did decades ago. Things are not the same and smart politicians realize it. We’ll probably see more independent candidates, including Oscar Lovelace.
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