Let The Spin Begin … Again
WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE BATTLE TO CHANGE SOUTH CAROLINA
FITSNews – June 25, 2008 – It’s been a fairly remarkable two weeks in South Carolina politics as the Republican primary and runoff elections are now officially in the books …
So who won? And who lost? Were change agents successful in shifting the balance of power in Columbia? Or did status quo forces pick up gains? And what will the new “Republican” legislative majority look like come January 2009 when a fresh batch of lawmakers rolls into town?
Let’s start sifting through the spin cycle, shall we?
As is the case with any election cycle involving a multiplicity of issues, interests, candidates and geographic locations, all sides are predictably claiming victory.
Status quo supporters point to the “woodshed” whoopin’ that incumbent Sen. Jake Knotts put on Katrina Shealy last night as their crown jewel, while change agents point to the similarly-lopsided thumping that Tom Davis administered to incumbent Sen. Catherine Ceips two weeks ago as their top-ticket victory.
Both races were landslide victories for diametrically-opposed forces, involved hundreds of thousands of dollars, and will likely be the focal point of the heavy spinning that leads up to the November 2008 general election.
And both of the victorious candidates in those races are clear leaders of – not just subscribers to – their respective ideological camps.
Knotts’ win was certainly a defiant status quo “hold,” preserving a seat for the educrat/ personal injury lawyer lobby that’s been running the liberal State Senate for years. Davis’ win, on the other hand, was a net gain of “plus 2″ for the conservative cause, replacing a consistent status quo backer with a real Republican who will no doubt shake things up in the Senate on behalf of the taxpayers.
But beyond what some are calling a “top of the ticket split” in this battle for the heart and soul of the Republican party, what can we say about the rest of the GOP races?
In the Senate, the evidence is overwhelming that voters wanted – and got – change.
The past two weeks have seen nothing short of a seismic shift in the balance of power in the Senate – and no matter how you look at it, conservatives came out on top.
In Spartanburg, pro-change candidate Lee Bright’s win over status-quo backer Scott Talley is another conservative “two-fer.” This open seat, which was held by anti-business ambulance chaser John Hawkins, will now be represented by a solid pro-business Republican.
These anti-business ambulance chasers (and Democrat educrats) pulled out all the stops to elect one of their own, but Bright prevailed in what was clearly the runoff night’s biggest win for conservatives.
When you add Davis’ triumph and the victory of strong fiscal conservative Mike Rose two weeks ago over left-leaning Republican Sen. Randy Scott, you’re looking at another conservative “two-fer” and a clear net gain of six votes (at least) for common sense change in the State Senate.
Incumbent Sen. Jim Ritchie – another of the big-spending status quo Republicans in Columbia – also went down in defeat last night, with Shane Martin set to take his place. Martin certainly looks like a common sense kind of a guy, so his win could end up shifting the balance even further toward the taxpayer.
Looking at the other Republican Senate seats, conservative champions Mick Mulvaney and Philip Shoopman both advanced without primary opposition, with Shoopman facing no general election opponent in November and Mulvaney facing a die-hard liberal in a district that becomes more Republican by the day.
Because these two open seats are currently held by Senators with decent voting records, we’re calling them “conservative holds,” although both Mulvaney and Shoopman will no doubt push the envelope of taxpayer protection even further.
Conservatives also “held” the seat of Sen. Greg Ryberg, who easily dispatched a Republican challenger over in Aiken County.
In addition to Knotts’ landslide win, there were two other “status quo holds” to mention, as liberal Republican Senators Larry Martin and Luke Rankin, a former Democrat, were able to beat back primary challenges two weeks ago.
It’s important to remember, however, that Martin and Rankin’s victories (like Knotts’ win) did absolutely nothing to enhance the status quo’s power base in Columbia – all they did was keep their seats from falling to more conservative Republicans.
In fact, not a single State Senate seat shifted from conservative to status quo hands during the primary and runoff elections, which means that before we even get to the general election, supporters of change have already moved the margins in the Senate by a net of at least six … and possibly eight or ten votes.
Bottom line? There’s no way to look at the State Senate results as anything other than a huge win for the conservative cause.
BREAKING DOWN THE S.C. HOUSE
Over in the House of Representatives, conservatives also added several seats to their growing nucleus of taxpayer-friendly lawmakers.
Here are the outright conservative wins (as we see them) in the House chamber:
*Joey Millwood ousting incumbent Rep. Bob Walker
*Wendy Nanney ousting incumbent Rep. Gloria Haskins
*Bill Wylie ousting incumbent Rep. Bob Leach
*Tim Scott winning the seat formerly held by Rep. Tom Dantzler, who retired.
*Rita Allison assuming the seat formerly held by Rep. Joe Mahaffey, who retired.
And here are the conservative seats which were “held” …
*Rep. Thad Viers
*Rep. Kit Spires
*Deborah Long (seat being vacated by conservative Rep. Mick Mulvaney)
*Tommy Stringer (seat being vacated by consverative Rep. Philip Shoopman)
Now let’s check the other side of the fight, starting with the status quo incumbents who successfully held off challengers over the past two weeks (i.e. resulting in no change to the legislative makeup):
*Rep. Richard Chalk
*Rep. Carl Gullick
*Rep. Keith Kelly
*Rep. Bill Sandifer
*Rep. B.R. Skelton
*Rep. Annette Young
Also, we have the status quo seats which were “held” (again creating no change in the legislative balance of power) …
* David Herndon (seat held by retiring Rep. Bill Cotty)
* Tom Young (seat held by retiring Rep. Skipper Perry)
* George Hearn (seat held by retiring Rep. Bill Witherspoon)
And finally, here is the lone race, as far as we can tell, where a seat currently held by a conservative was lost to a status quo Republican candidate …
*Mike Sottile (seat held by retiring Rep. Ben Hagood)
Several other races are being claimed by different groups, and several more are up in the air … and of course let’s not forget pro-school choice Democrat incumbent Curtis Brantley, who held on to his seat despite a well-funded challenge from former State Rep. Thayer Rivers.
Add it all up and you’re looking at five outright conservative “pick-ups” against only one outright loss, or a net pick-up of “plus eight” heading into the general elections.
CONCLUSIONS
Over the last few months, dozens of different candidates, special interest groups, media types and other interested parties have sought to frame these elections around a single issue – school choice.
That’s insane, as the unprecedented prevalence of the immigration reform issue (for better or worse) and tax and spend issues clearly occupied most of the voters’ attention this go-round.
Certainly, the unprecedented engagement of top Democratic educrats in these Republican primary elections signals that education was a key underlying issue, but several pro-school choice incumbents (i.e. Beaufort Senator Catherine Ceips and Spartanburg Rep. Ralph Davenport) went down like Led Zeppelins, with Ceips getting over $100,000 from a group whose whole platform consisted of defeating the “evil out-of-state voucher backers.”
Speaking of, for all the hootin’ and hollerin’ about conservative “bad boy” groups like South Carolinians for Repsonsible Government and the S.C. Club for Growth, this election cycle saw an unprecedented mobilization of liberal special interest groups seeking to prop up incumbents, an effort fueled by hundreds of thousands of status quo dollars from trial lawyers, educrats and yes, out-of-state special interests.
Among these groups were …
* Jim Rex’s imminent gubernatorial campaign organization
* The S.C. Senate “Republican” Caucus
Each one of these organizations, while railing at the top of its lungs for months against legal campaign activity, could ironically find itself the focus of ethics investigations for overtly illegal campaign activity and improper coordination of resources.
Plus, we’ll never know where a lot of the money they used came from … which is ironic considering they were attacking candidates for the very same thing.
Comments
By REAL news on June 25th, 2008 at 10:18 am
BULLSHIT!
By Talley wagger on June 25th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Talley kissed the rear of Sanford at every chance and look where it got him, nowhere. Sanford is not loyal to anyone and has hurt his own causes by being involved in them. Why would any legislator do what Talley has done day in and out only to have Sanford come out against him.
Watch out Chris Crawford you are the next blind kool aid drinker who Sanford will turn on.
By former flames on June 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
what I want to know is how you got KAtie Dunning to get on that washing machne. what does mrs sic think of that I wonder!!! isure hope she knows of sic’s past conquestes.
By Crooner on June 25th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Your pejorative use of the term “ambulance chasers” ignores the fact that there is an injured South Carolinian in that ambulance. And that injured citizen is going to require resources to be made whole. Given those facts, it appears that FITS believes conservative philosophy dictates that the public as a whole absorb the cost of those resources rather than an at fault corporation. Talk about passing legislation to help out your buddies…
By fitsnews on June 25th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Croonie-
Alright, you make a fair point. Our position, however, is that South Carolina should adopt reasonable and fair standards in dispensing injury awards so that people ARE taken care of without fraudulent or excessive claims impeding things like job growth and higher incomes for employees in this state lucky enough to have a job.
We’re not saying people shouldn’t be made whole, we’re just saying that people shouldn’t be made a “whole lot more than whole” (with attorneys pocketing a big chunk of that) in such a way that we lose jobs and suffer from depressed wages.
We see where you’re coming from, but the system is out-of-balance at the moment and fraudulent and exorbitant claims are hurting the very people that are supposed to be protected.
-FITSNews
By Likeabadpenny on June 25th, 2008 at 10:49 am
I enjoy coming to this site but I have to filter out the spin from the facts…somewhat like someone who enjoys being in the sun but always wears sunglasses and sun block to keep out the harmful effects.
I consider myself one of those who support the reform movement…and support the governor overall.
The problem is that the reform movement has been co-oped by Sanford’s very immature personal vendettas….when I see the Club for Growth endorse so-called tax and spend educrats against other Republicans who support vouchers and tax cuts because of personal vendettas, it is easy for me to see the REAL agenda.
The best thing that can happen to the reform movement is the election of a new governor in 2 years…someone who doesnt confuse his/her own political ambitions with what is best for government.
Last night, like 2 weeks ago, was a mixed bag of results and didnt present us with a mandate for anything…anyone that tells you differently is either spinning, confused or simply lying.
By bye sanford on June 25th, 2008 at 11:04 am
#6 is right and so is talley wagger: there are others who can and do lead the “reform” agenda better than Sanford.
By Drove the Chevy to the levy on June 25th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Change agents fail to see that Davis will be getting schooled for the last two years of the Sanford administration and Jake is a seasoned ready to go veteran Senator. Not much of a comparison there. And by the time Davis is up to speed he will be disavowing Sanford in order to get re-elected.
Face it, the Guv, SCRG,Howard Rich, etc… got slammed this election cycle. And that has left a gap for those aligned with the Guv to be targeted.
By jokeofagov@sanfraud.org on June 25th, 2008 at 11:21 am
i heard Jenny told Mark that it was all his fault. Jakie is gonna have fun with this…..
By Likeabadpenny on June 25th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Frankly, I feel bad for Tom Davis.
He is going to find that it is completely different being a legislator and having to answer to constituents and home communities that being a water carrier for the governor.
There is a learning curve in our personal lives when we transition from grunt to a manager…..often times we see the workplace so differently than we did when we werent responsibile for the employess but rather for the work duties we had performed.
Likewise, Senator Davis. If he continues the slash and burn mentality with the Senate leadership that he employed as Sanford’s sidekick, he is going to be one cloutless, isolated legislator.
I hope he grows into the office he has earned.
By Alister on June 25th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Haha, judging by the angry, emotional, winy comments, the anti-conservative forces are pretty upset today. They know Will is correct, but they have to pretend otherwise.
They are sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting “No No! We won! We Won! Sanford Sucks! Sanford Sucks!”
Well yall, just keep acting like school children, because its fun for the rest of us (on the victor’s side) to read. Responsible legislators were sent to Columbia yesterday in place of lousy ones. No question about that. Someday, the taxpayer will be properly represented in the Statehouse, no matter what yall do to stop that.
By Food for thought about reform on June 25th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Fits,
While I agree that there are some suits that are brought which are meritless in nature, reform can cause its own problems. The real victims of (tort) reform are those who are seriously injured and not compensated with the amount needed for future medical care, because some legislators thought it was a good sound bite. The main problem is that insurance companies and the defense law firms representing them (Including several Senators like Jim Ritchie) are allowed to fight and appeal everything driving court costs up, as well as billable hours, which someone has to pay for (i.e. everyone else who pays premiums). This causes premiums to rise, not the attorneys who are fighting for the injured person (who pays premiums all their life and when they need the money the insurance companies refuse). There is the flaw in the system that should be reformed, but not under this Governor or the people who simply yell for change mindlessly blaming it on attorneys.
I appreciate your witty banter and insightful stories, but I wish that you would examine all sides before you instinctively attack anyone who is in the business of being an attorney. No one puts down what you do, when clearly you are the one ruining peoples personal lives with your accusations and seedy stories. However, because you claim to be a journalist you view it as o.k. to do your job, but it is not o.k. for an attorney to do theirs (as seen with terms like ambulance chasers being applied to anyone who is a personal injury lawyer)? That sounds awfully hypocritical.
By purpleminded1 on June 25th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
I find it so interesting to see the shift in the Rebublican “conservative”
message. Once, it was family values, anti-gay, anti-aboriton. Ha. All those Rebublicans’ “falls from grace,” “outings,” et al scandals (hey, Democrats have their fair share, ie. Spitzer) destroy /contradict that mantra. Now, the message is “taxpayers.”
smaller/reduced government, lower/no taxes, vouchers, pro-business, etc. I have to hand it to you all, it has worked. Pretty clever- this shift.
By Earl Capps on June 25th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Alister – while I believe the Governor’s approach was wrong and thought it was good for his big-spending cronies to get spanked, I hope those who prevailed don’t go into the kind of childish games you have predicted, even though it might be tempting to do so.
In the bigger picture, it’s not about Sanford – it’s about this state. I really hope that we can put the last few months behind and move forward, considering each idea on its relative merits and that we’ll see both sides acting with restraint and respect.
It would be a welcome change, and if it’s done that way, I believe there’s a lot that can be accomplished.
By Anti-business pro-justice, Anti-justice, pro-business on June 25th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Well said “food for thought”. I used to be a die hard “tort reform” guy, and I still consider myself conservative. I used to be under the impression that lawsuits accounted for the majority of insurance rate hikes, when in reality the vast majority of insurance rate increases come from bad Wall-Street investments by the insurance companies. The day that I learned that the Stella Awards (seemingly looney lawsuits like “woman sues furniture store after tripping over own kid”) were admittedly made up (insurance company lobbyists), I started to question the information I had always held to be true about the current civil justice system and alternatives to it.
The problem with the defense inclined “tort reform” is that it creates more problems than it cures. We all dislike fraudulent claims, and there are measures already in place to try and safeguard against them. We could take extreme measures to get rid of them, but the unintended consequences (such as limiting poor peoples access to justice) would be immense.
I encourage all conservatives to reexamine their views on this particular issue by accessing information from both sides of the argument and approaching it with an open mind.
By Katrina Shealy on June 25th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
I want to thank all of you for the interesting comments I have had the opportunity to read about myself over the past couple weeks. I have learned quite a bit about my family and me that I didn’t know. For those of you who really know me and supported me through this tough race, I thank you. I have been a strong conservative Republican all my life and cannot be bought or sold by anyone. I have stood up to Governor Sanford when I was against him and supported him when it was the right thing to do. Did I accept money from Special Interest Groups…you are darn right I did. Mr. Knotts has (had) a war chest of over $200,000 of “Special Interest” money going into this campaign. The people (whoever they were or wherever the came from on Tuesday) have spoken and Knotts will be the Senator in Lexington County for 4 more years. We cannot sit back now and go back to the status quo. We have their attention. Use that however you can.
I plan on going back to work tomorrow in that “not so high paying” Executive job I have but I will keep my chin up and keep fighting for the people of Lexington County and South Carolina every chance I get.
I congratulate Mr. Knotts and his campaign staff for an excellant last minute ground game and I pray that his interest the next for years will be for All of the people of Lexington County and South Carolina not just a hand picked few. I hope that he will make every effort to work with the Legislature and not fight against every idea that is presented just for the sake of fighting. Do the right thing Senator Knotts…Make Lexington County proud to call you their senator.
By Toyota Kawesaki on June 25th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
sic you can come up for air now Gov.Moonbeam is satisfied
By fitsnews on June 25th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
First of all – thanks to Katrina for a classy comment. As for you, Toyota, we will have some thoughts as to how the governor could have better engaged this primary process very soon.
It’s funny how quickly people forget when we’re on Sanford’s ass … which we have been before and no doubt will be again.
By Likeabadpenny on June 25th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Actually, FITS, people dont quickly forget when you are on Sanford’s ass….we recognize it for what it is.
On those occasions when you do criticize the governor, it has the aura of a beloved spouse bitching because the loved one left the cap off the toothpaste or left the toilet seat up. Your criticisms of the governor NEVER rise to the vitrol you heap on ANYONE who would dare cross him or HIS in-crowd.
I support the governor but dislike his childish approach to politics….he confuses his personal vendettas with the reform movement…and while the governor can be proud of his hard work on reforming state government, he has burned more bridges and hurt his own efforts in many sad and unneccessary ways.
By fitsnews on June 25th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
#19-
Really? You mean like the time we exposed the fact that the governor settled out of court for hundreds of thousands of dollars in the drowning death of a young black girl in Beaufort County?
A story that his office spent weeks keeping out of the mainstream media?
That seems a little more than “leaving the cap off the toothpaste” to us, but anyway, think what you wanna think …
-FITSNews
By Lucky Strike on June 25th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Trust us sic, you and the entire state of South Carolina are far better off with Scott Singer losing for the second time in HD 81. Unfortunately, and so say the (most) local elected officials, that means we have to deal with his sorry RINO ass for far longer on issues that affect our daily lives far more than some 1 of 124 Freshman could.
The Singer loss reaffirms that South Carolina is in charge of South Carolina politics at least Aiken and that has been an open question for at least the past six years or so.
By the way, tell Sanfraud that his TV buy running as late as 10:30 PM last night did absolutely no good. And actually, next time we run somebody, we’re definitely going to as the GUV to endorse our opponent.
Tally Ho!
By rick beltram on June 25th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Fits:
You also had a big win with Steve Parker.
A true conservative that is also active in the GOP.(Spartanburg)
WOW!
By HP on June 25th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Mrs. Shealy — thanks for giving it every effort to beat down this criminal culture that will continue to beset us with Jake Knotts. We were right there with you all the way. If anybody could have done it, it was you lady!!
It never was about Governor Sanford. It is about the people of SC!
By PEGGY PRICE on June 25th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
24. PP-June 25, 2008
STEVE PARKER A TRUE CONSERVATIVE, GET REAL!
I AM BEGINNING TO THINK RICK AND STEVE ARE AN ITEM.
WILL THEY BE GOING TO COLUMBIA TOGETHER?
By backyard burger on June 25th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Sic – thanks for keeping us informed and keeping fools like The Toyota Whatever in his or her place, we have much work to do in the State on to 2010.
By lily on June 26th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Katrina, you did a good job. You are a brave woman. You knew you had a tough fight on your hands. The education establishment has been spending taxpayers’ money for years to fight reform, and they do not report their activities or their spending to the public, and no one can make them. The journalists who “reported” on this race — both on the news side and the editorial side — would have been flunked by the journalism professors I had in school, and most of them were hard core liberals. Democrats who do not agree with a single word in the Republican party platform voted in the run off because they were rallied by the Democrats’ top officials. And to top it all off, some of the most unethical people in the state worked to re-elect your opponent.
You ran a good race. You stood up to a bully whose tactics of intimidation are well known. He usually scares people away from crossing him. But you proved he couldn’t scare you. Do not disappear, Katrina. Stay engaged. Remember that 41 percent of the people in the Republican Party in that district wanted him out. Keep fighting for them. Be a strong voice for reform and honest government. If you do that — and I know you will — you can do more good outside the system than inside it.
By tammy on June 26th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Steve Parker was my high school Psych teacher and gave me the creeps in a weird way. If you know what I mean.
Just saying.
But Rick is right…SCRG would probably want to add them to their list of wins.
:) t
By rick on June 26th, 2008 at 6:48 am
Hang in Katrina….another chance will be in the future. An old dog has trouble adapting to a new reality.
By Toyota Kawesaki on June 26th, 2008 at 7:31 am
# 16 is that really Katrina Shealy or is it Bill Clinton with his famous Im going to get back to work for the American people quote
By Seeking Truth on June 26th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Thanks Ms. Shealy – now get back to work, you lost, and it’s time for you to get over it. Also, Rick Beltram, you are the biggest bag of wind newshousnd I have ever witnessed. Spartanburg Co will suffer dramatically with the loss of most of its delegation due to reitrement and/or your recruitment of fellow Republicans to run against incumbents because you couldn’t get enough press when there was no oppositon. Hopefully when your re-election comes up as part chairman, my fellow GOP’ers will boot your “Mr. Potato Head” ass back to the pasture where you belong. You are all what is WRONG with politics.
By Having Seen It For What It Is on June 26th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Seeking Truth,
You, Jake Knotts, Donnie Myers and “Sheriff” Metts [a thug quartet singing a squalid song] are all what is WRONG with [Lexington County] politics.
By Clay Pit Crew on June 26th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Tom Young is status quo. OK. But at least he’s REPUBLICAN. Scott Singer is a northeastern liberal masquerading as a Republican. He’s been quoted in the Aiken Standard as “proudly voting twice for Bill Clinton” and he ran as an Independent against Skipper Perry before “converting” to the GOP so he could have a chance. If Tom Young won as the status quo Republican, it’s a far sight better than the left-wing wolf in sheep’s clothing, Scott Singer!
By XUP on January 2nd, 2009 at 2:18 pm
RE:
By REAL news on June 25th, 2008 at 10:18 am
BULLSHIT!
###########################################
That’s a familiar cry from a familiar thug on a familiar subject at a familiar time.
Sounds like Brad Warthen.