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Red’s Got The Blue

REPUBLICANS PROCEED WITH CAUTION - SHARP LEFT TURN AHEAD

By Mande Wilkes

FITSNews - June 24, 2008 - It’s been a rough couple of years for the Republican Party, and by most accounts the tush-kicking is only going to worsen.

Once equal parts red (Republican) and blue (Democrat), the picture of American politics has been painted with a new brush, splashing the country in blue with only tinges of red. Call it hype, call it momentum, call it the tipping point - whatever the reason, it’s the Democrats’ season.

Some states which were previously Republican hotbeds - like South Carolina - have simmered down, making room for a blossoming progressive sentiment. And many areas that were once solidly red are now purple at best, a shift that is emblematic of the battle that John McCain will face this fall.

How hard will McCain have to fight?

This handy pictorial illustrates his challenge.

To be fair, it looks like McCain will win a good number of states - just not the right ones.

As in the past several elections, a handful of voters in a handful of states will tip the results. This time, though, the effect of the swing states is even more pronounced thanks to the expanded Democratic momentum.

Democrat Barack Obama appears capable of prying the South from the Republican hands that have gripped it for the past several decades. North Carolina and Virginia are up for grabs, and the large black population in those states may trump the clout of white evangelicals.

Yet even though there is overwhelming African-American support for Obama, he has to be careful not to turn off socially conservative blacks. According to the primary races, most black voters will side with Obama, but the loss of a even a few white Democrats could cost him these states.

Florida is again set to be pivotal in the November race, due in part to its diverse mix of ages, races, socioeconomic backgrounds, and political persuasions. The state’s 27 electoral votes likely will go to the candidate who best “middles” himself, the one who most convincingly teeters on key issues.

That’s why McCain and Obama better start stretching those hamstrings, because Florida’s going to be all about straddling the fence.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Ohio won’t be won easily by either candidate. And though we doubt she’d ever play second fiddle, Hillary Clinton would win these states for Obama if she were the VP candidate. Her gritty portrayal as a working-class warrior played well among the blue-collar types that populate these states, though she would have some ’splaining to do about NAFTA in these areas that were hit hard by her husband’s trade treaty.

The electoral votes in New Mexico and Colorado are McCain’s to lose. George Bush won both states in 2004, but the immigration issue may shift the state to the Democrats.

The Hispanic vote will be pivotal in these immigrant-infested states, and for McCain to win, he’s got to be very politically dexterous - simultaneously highlighting his support for last summer’s immigration proposal while being careful not to remind Republicans that he voted for amnesty.

New Hampshire starts out as probably the most candidate-neutral swing state, though McCain has a bit of an advantage since he won the January primary (while Obama lost to Clinton).

At stake here are the state’s notorious independent voters, a group which can be conquered by Obama’s promise of a new style of politics or by McCain’s congressional knack for appealing to both sides of the aisle.

In sum, both candidates have to work hard to court voters in swing states while maintaining the support they already have.

It won’t exactly be a coronation, but at this point we believe it’s Obama’s race to lose.

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