FITSNews Exclusive – Consultant’s Miscalculation Cost Sanford VP Slot

ADVISOR’S FLIRTATION WITH GIULIANI DICTATED GOVERNOR’S DECISION TO RENEGE ON McCAIN ENDORSEMENT

FITSNews – February 16, 2008 – During the 2000 Republican Primary, there was no stronger Palmetto State advocate for Sen. John McCain’s presidential bid than an up-and-coming U.S. Congressman named Mark Sanford. Both politicians were labeled as “mavericks,” and both gleefully bucked the status quo with fiercely independent voices articulating a new brand of Republicanism, one that was sadly a few years away from gaining widespread popular appeal in the buckle of the Bible Belt.

Of course McCain’s 2000 defeat, bitter and caustic as it was, paved the way for Sanford’s gubernatorial victory two years later. By that time, the same cookie cutter negative campaigning and overt pandering to evangelical voters that worked so well against McCain fell flat against him, overshadowed by pocketbook concerns set against the backdrop of a sluggish national economy.

Sanford and his fiscal conservative message rolled to victory, and by his third year in the governor’s office – which we’ll get to in a moment – he had built a political cult of personality unrivaled in the state. In 2006, he rode that cult to a landslide reelection victory – despite the fact that his administration had failed to pass any of his major legislative initiatives. Within the political power structure at the State House, Sanford’s adeptness at grabbing headlines at the expense of his legislative antagonists had rendered him completely impotent in terms of getting anything done. But outside of the State House, he was the most popular politician since former Gov. Carroll Campbell, and by far and away the most coveted 2008 presidential endorsement in early-voting South Carolina.

But who would Sanford back for the highest office in the land? And more importantly, how would he leverage his tremendous political capital to further his own national political ambitions?

Since 2005, Sanford’s political calculations have been determined almost exclusively by one man, Washington D.C.-based political consultant Jon Lerner, who also advises the South Carolina Republican Party and who previously advised Spartanburg businesswoman Karen Floyd in her failed bid for State Superintendent of Education.

It was Lerner who counseled the governor beginning in early 2005 to back off of a previous promise he had made to McCain to “be there (for McCain) when the time was right.” In other words, once Sanford had been safely reelected, he would be free to throw his support behind the Arizona Senator, who to this day remains wildly unpopular with the evangelical wing of the South Carolina GOP.

McCain and Sanford have both denied to FITSNews that any such promise was made, but numerous sources within the two politicians’ organizations have confirmed it. In fact, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham – arguably McCain’s most influential 2008 endorsement – is said to have reminded Sanford of his previous commitment to McCain during a meeting between the two politicians shortly before this year’s primary vote.

By that time, however, the governor’s consultant had already made it impossible for Sanford to endorse McCain.

That’s because Lerner, who has a history of running races in New York State, had for months been angling to get a prominent consulting spot in former GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani’s organization, and sources tell FITSNews that a deal had already been cut for Sanford to endorse Giuliani in exchange for a spot on his national ticket. And, of course, a nice consulting contract for Lerner.

Politically, it made sense. At the time Lerner’s deal was reportedly struck, Giuliani was leading the GOP field in most national polls and McCain’s presidential ship appeared sunk.

But an amazing string of events – the improbable rise of Mike Huckabee, the collapse of Mitt Romney, the lackluster showing of Fred Thompson and Giuliani’s failed strategy of ignoring Iowa and New Hampshire – all conspired to bring McCain’s once-doomed candidacy back from the dead.

Left holding his suddenly-deflated Giuliani V.P. bag, Sanford was given one final chance to endorse McCain (at his January 2008 meeting with Lindsey Graham), but again passed on doing so based on Lerner’s advice.

According to Sanford insiders, Lerner once again counseled against a McCain endorsement, in large part because the likelihood of a vice-presidential slot with McCain had evaporated due to governor’s prior indecisiveness.

More importantly, though, the prospect of Lindsey Graham taking a Cabinet position in McCain’s administration meant the possibility of an open U.S. Senate seat, something the governor is said to covet.

A special election for U.S. Senate would confront Sanford with the same electoral math he faced in his 2006 reelection for the governor, meaning the risk of alienating a potential base of support would far outweigh the benefit of a spot on McCain’s shortlist, which is all that was being offered in exchange for the governor’s “Johnny-come-lately” endorsement.

In a recent post on the pro-McCain website The Palmetto Scoop, author Adam Fogle writes that “Sanford’s post-gubernatorial ambitions of seeking a larger office have been left out in the cold. If Sanford had any delusions about being vice president, they’re now gone. He has lost a rare opportunity to become a major player on the national scene and keep South Carolina in the limelight.”

We couldn’t agree more … and now you know why that’s the case.

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