So the Clintons or whoever else can spin Obama’s victory as a “black vote,” but maybe such an analysis actually favors Obama. Bottom line: I would not think he would lose any of the major states that Hillary Clinton would be favored in during the general election — California, New York, Illinois. My guess is that he’d win those just like Hillary would.

But if Southern blacks are excited enough about Barack to vote in much-higher-than-normal numbers, he might actually pull a surprise in a Southern state…..or at least make the GOP work harder…..particularly if the GOP nominates a candidate that Southern conservatives aren’t roundly wild about.

Overall, it was an interesting primary, and I would think a logical analysis of it suggests that Obama is a stronger candidate for the Dems in November.

To the average person that doesn’t dive into voter data the Dems beat the Repubs in turnout. But should anyone be surprised or shocked the minority voters, especially African-American voters, decided to vote yesterday instead of last Saturday? I don’t think so. So the Democrats can celebrate a victory, but it certainly isn’t that surprising after you look at the data.

But if you look at the some of the fastest growing counties (Beaufort, York, Lexington, Horry, Dorchester, Aiken) the Republicans had more voters participate in those counties than the Democrats. So one could make the case that Democrats didn’t succeed in winning over the newest voters and those likely to be from out-of-state. But a win’s a win, the Democrats can celebrate. But there is something for both parties to learn from the two primaries.

I remember living in CA when we were trying to recall Gray Davis. It was a close run thing until Clinton came to the state to campaign for Gray. From that point on Davis never had a chance. His poll numbers crashed and it was Ahnuld. The funny thing about that “greatest pol of his generation”… he never seems to win anything but his own elections. Curious.