Handicapping The Presidential Field
FAVORITES, LONGSHOTS ROUNDING FIRST TURN OF CAMPAIGN 2008
FITSNews – June 6, 2007 – With the barrage of campaign-related news it’s easy to forget that South Carolina’s Presidential Primary is still more than seven months away, but now seems as good a time as any to take a look at where the top horses are currently positioned.
On the GOP side it’s Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson in the lead pack, Romney and Huckabee in the second grouping and everybody else pretty much using up valuable oxygen on the debate stage. For the Democrats, it’s Hillary and Barack Obama (who rumor has it will turn in an impressive fundraising quarter) ensconced in the top two slots, with John Edwards sitting all by his lonesome on the second tier. Over a third of registered voters on both sides of the partisan fence remain undecided, and on top of that it’s important to remember that polls at this stage of the race are still largely “preference contests” as opposed to firm commitments.
Still, it’s becoming pretty clear that the field is separating. Among Republicans, we currently give Giuliani, McCain and Thompson each about a 30% chance of winning the GOP nomination, Romney a 7% chance and Huckabee a 3% chance. Nobody else even registers a tenth of a percent. Among Democrats, we suspect Hillary and Obama each currently have about a 49% chance of winning their party’s nod, with Edwards taking the remaining 2%. Again, nobody else is even on the radar. So … how do we know so much? Well, we is smart, people.
Comments
By Newspaper Hack on June 6th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
I know people are getting hyper-excited about this race, but remember, at this time in 2003, JOE LIEBERMAN was No. 1 among the Democrats. And John Kerry locked up the establishment. But John Edwards won the state. I don’t know about the GOP (I’ll stick to handicapping the party that i know about), but in the Democratic race, you can’t pick a winner until December or January.
By Silence Dogood on June 7th, 2007 at 10:29 am
Like any forecast it only gets clearer once it gets closer. Consider, Thompson wasn’t even in the race ten seconds ago, but it is now considered by many to be the front runner. Gingrich could jump in, Gore could jump in, Thompson’s (or other candidates’) health could fail. Obama could go back to doing smack again – I see some great Dean Scream, Muskie Cry, or other historical type gaffe’s coming.
As for what might happen this time next Spring in the presidential primaries, this is not a bad forecast, but as I say, predicting the whether this far out is not worth too much.
By Newspaper Hack on June 7th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
@ Silence
The night of the Iowa Caucuses in ‘04, I was two-fisting Jaeger and Goldschlager on my news editor’s couch. By the time it happened, I was thoroughly in the bag and thought, “Fuck, that man’s done.”
The next morning, I wondered if I had some sort of cirrhosis-based hallucination. Fortunately, not this time.
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